The main purpose of the functioning of the tourism market is to maximize profits by attracting more and more tourists. All efforts of travel agencies, tour agents, as well as other employees directly or indirectly related to the production of tourist products, the provision of tour services, are interested in promoting Russian resort areas, attracting tourists to famous places to benefit from this. The final level of consumption in tourism is quantified as the value of tourism products (goods and services) used to directly meet the needs of a tourist or sightseer.
This indicator is one of the key indicators in the analysis of the functioning of the tourism industry, it reflects the standard of living of foreign tourists, is an indirect indicator of the attractiveness of the region for tourists and reflects the development of the market in this region. Therefore, the extrapolation of this indicator is necessary for the complexity of the analysis of the tourism services market in order to adjust various measures and programs aimed at developing tourism. That is why it was chosen as the main indicator for modeling.
In order to proceed to modeling, it is necessary to analyze the original time series for the presence of a trend and seasonality. Figure 3 shows that there is a clear upward trend in the dynamics of the series. Secondly, the periodicity over the entire interval is approximately the same, so we can assume the presence of seasonality in this time series. Thirdly, the oscillation amplitude is approximately the same throughout the entire period. So this time series can be called additive rather than multiplicative.
It is also possible to confirm this with various tests and criteria. According to the ACF chart (Appendix 2), we can conclude that there is a trend component: since the correlations on the first lags are close to 1, and then decrease monotonically, in addition to this, not all autocorrelation values fell into the acceptable gray area - the area where the values are insignificant - therefore, the data does not have the properties of white noise (stationarity, randomness).
The FACF diagram (Appendix 2) also confirms the absence of signs of white noise - too many values are "outliers" - go beyond the gray area of \u200b\u200bthe allowable value. The presence of seasonality is evidenced by the fact that each 12 lag has correlation values higher than the rest, even though the indicator is decreasing.
On the periodogram chart (Appendix 2), you can see several features that are typical for a time series that has a trend component. Firstly, a sharp upward jump is noticeable at 0 lag. Secondly, following the jump, the values begin to decrease. From the periodogram, you can also calculate the periodicity of the series, which is equal to the reciprocal of the frequency, and is 12.04, which is rounded up to 12 months.
Analytically, the assumption about the presence of a trend is checked using a nonparametric randomness test (Wald-Wolfowitz test). The purpose of this test is to determine the presence of a systematic component in the time series. According to the test results, at any level of significance, the hypothesis of the randomness of the time series of the volume of paid tourist services is rejected (observed value = -7.51; critical value (5%) = 1.96), therefore, it can be argued that there is a trend in this series ( systematic) component.
To build some time series models, it is required that they satisfy stationarity conditions. A stationary time series is one in which the mean and variance are constant over the entire time interval. To test the stationarity of the time series of the volume of paid tourist services, the Dickey-Fuller test (Appendix 7) was used, the test values of which are illustrated in Table 2.
Table 2 Results of the extended Dickey-Fuller test for checking the stationarity of a series of paid tourist services in Russia, 2005-2015
It follows from the table that when checking the initial series, the null hypothesis of the non-stationarity of the series is not rejected (the observed value is less than the critical value in modulus). When taking the first difference, the situation changes: the null hypothesis is rejected, so that the original time series has an integration order of 1, that is, it becomes stationary after taking the first difference.
tourist service is the result of the activities of a tourism enterprise to meet the needs of tourists. Service itself is an invisible commodity of a special kind. The service arises in the process of its consumption and does not exist separately, by itself. This is the main difference between a service and a product. The good is usually delivered to the consumer, and in relation to the tourism service, the consumer is delivered to the place of its generation.
Tourist services can be divided into:
main tourist services are regulated by a contract for tourist services and a voucher. These services typically include: accommodation, food, transport services, including transfer, excursion services, tourist center.
tourist center- a place of rest for a tourist, including all his recreational opportunities:
natural, cultural-historical, ecological, ethnic, socio-demographic, infrastructural.
Transport- means of transportation with which you can get to the tourist center. The most widely used means of transportation is without a doubt the aircraft.
Accommodation services- this is a specific hotel that is offered to the tourist in the tourist center for the duration of the trip.
additional (target and infrastructure services not included in the tour price and purchased for an additional fee). Additional services may be offered at the time of purchase of the tour and will be included in the cost of the tour, or may be offered during the tour and paid by the tourist himself
Services of public catering organizations (bar, restaurant, cafe, buffet, beer bar);
Shops (souvenir, grocery), vending machines;
Entertainment infrastructure (disco, casino, nightclub, slot machine hall, billiard room);
Excursion service, services of guides-translators;
Organization of sale of tickets to theaters, circus, concerts, etc.;
Transport services (booking tickets for all types of transport, ordering vehicles at the request of guests, calling a taxi, car rental);
Purchase and delivery of flowers;
Household services (repair and cleaning of shoes; repair and ironing of clothes; dry cleaning and laundry services; storage of things and valuables; unloading, loading and delivery of luggage to the room; rental of cultural and household items - TVs, dishes, sports equipment, etc.; repair watches, household appliances, radio equipment; services of a hairdressing salon, manicure and massage rooms and other household services);
Beauty salon services;
Sauna, bath, swimming pools, gym;
Rent of negotiation halls, conference hall;
Business center services;
Transport services- one of the main types of services in tourism. They account for the main share in the price structure of the tour. Depending on the duration and distance of travel, this share (in most cases) ranges from 40 to 60%
The main share in the overall structure of transport services belongs to aviation transport. The largest number of tourists, especially those traveling long distances, use aviation services. Aviation companies, having international booking and reservation networks, pay travel agencies a certain amount for each seat booked on the plane, thereby motivating them to choose air travel.
Transportation services and other transport services are present in various components of the tourism product. Transportation from the place of departure to the place of destination and transfer – transportation of tourists to the destination, transport services on the spot.
Tourist transport travel is implemented by several types of transport: rail and road; aviation and automobile; water, etc. The most mobile modes of transport are buses and cars. They are used both on an independent route and as an auxiliary (transfer) transport for the delivery of tourists from airports or train stations to the hotel and back.
Automobile transport can rightly be called a transport of general use, since it is used everywhere: from transfers and excursions, inside shuttle bus services to car rental by tourists for personal use on vacation. Buses and cars transport of local and intra-regional significance. Bus sightseeing and educational tours with visits to several cities and places of interest are especially popular. It is convenient for tourists that they can travel along the route and within the city on their own transport.
The main competitor of buses in group transportation is Railway. Within our country, it has some priority over air transportation (on group domestic routes). The advantage of rail transport is also lower tariffs and (in foreign countries) an extensive system of discounts, travel tickets, etc., allowing you to travel at significantly lower prices. However, neither bus nor rail transport competes with aviation over long distances.
Water transport, river and sea By themselves, they already evoke the image of a tourist-cruise service and are used quite actively in tourism. Water travel has a number of both advantages and disadvantages compared to other modes of transport. The most significant advantages are a high level of comfort, a large volume of one-time loading, the possibility of implementing various types and purposes of tourism (cognitive, business tourism, educational, shop tourism, etc.), good rest, a full range of life support. The main disadvantages are the low speed of movement of vehicles, high tariffs, limited mobility, and often the susceptibility of some people to "seasickness" on sea cruises.
Transport contributes to the development of regions, helps to increase the prestige of the country
Vehicle classification. In accordance with the Recommendations on Tourism Statistics developed by UNWTO, the following classification of means of transport is proposed:
Air transport: scheduled flights; non-scheduled flights; other air transportation.
Water transport: passenger lines and ferries; Cruises; other types.
Land transport: rail transport; intercity and city buses; other road transport; private cars for up to eight people; rental of vehicles.
International vehicle classification:
Air Transport:
Regular flights of national and foreign airlines;
Charter flights of national and foreign airlines;
Other flights: private jets, air taxis, other aircraft.
Water transport:
Commercial sea and river vessels: passenger lines, ferries, cruise ships.
Yachts, warships with a courtesy visit.
Ground transport:
Rail transport: regular flights, special tourist trains, other types;
Bus transport: regular flights, special tourist buses;
Private vehicles: taxis and rental cars with drivers, rental cars, own cars, motorhomes, hitchhiking, motorbike, bicycle
When working with service providers, you need:
a serious approach to the quality of services provided by the partner, as well as taking into account the reputation of the service provider among the partners of the tourism market;
compliance with the level and type of hotel, catering, transport services, the social segment of consumers and the type of tourism that a particular tour is oriented to;
careful and qualified approach to the preparation of all contractual documentation for cooperation, as this may further affect the credibility of the travel company.
Travel companies pay great attention to the development of a variety of services for vacationers. The company's goal is to increase brand awareness and create a brand that consumers trust. A large place in the percentage of the provision of tourist services of the company is the provision of basic tourist services such as accommodation and meals, transport services, and tour packages. Excursion services are also an important element when completing a tour by a company (Figure 1).
Figure 1 - Various services of a travel company
Russian legislation and international tourism law impose on the tour operator a serious responsibility for providing all the services provided for by the tour and the contract with the tourist, regardless of whether these services are provided by the tour operator or a third party. The receptive (accepting tourists) tour operator is responsible to tourists for all services included in the tour package and provided additionally.
A service is an expedient production activity, the main feature of which is the coincidence of the processes of production, sale and consumption in time and space. Tourist services represent a large segment of the service sector, ensuring the satisfaction of people's needs and the implementation of their activities in their free time: recreation, entertainment, travel. According to the role in the structure of tourist consumption, there are:
1) basic tourist services;
2) additional tourist services;
3) related tourist services.
The main tourist services are oriented towards the consumption of tourists (for example, accommodation services, transfers, excursions); additional services can be produced both for tourists and for the local population. Related services are consumed mainly by the local population.
Basic tourist services are targeted services included in the tour, i.e. services that are purchased in a package that guarantees their obligatory consumption at the destination. The travel package includes four mandatory element: tourist center, transport, accommodation services, transfer. A tourist center is a place of rest for a tourist, including all its recreational opportunities: natural, cultural, historical, ecological, ethnic, socio-demographic, infrastructural. This element is mandatory, because without an object of interest it is impossible to organize a trip. It must be chosen. Also, the tourist center is a holistic interest that combines all the motives of a person regarding recreational resources. Regardless of the individual desire of the consumer, the tour operator is obliged to reduce it to a single option - a tourist center. This is due to the fact that he is obliged to deliver the tourist to a specific place of rest, because it is there that transport will be ordered, it is there that the hotel will be ordered. Therefore, if a client says that he would like to visit, for example, a certain country, then it is necessary to clarify which area he is interested in, and then help him choose a specific tourist center. Transport is a means of transportation with which you can get to the tourist center. The most used as a means of transportation, of course, is the aircraft. For short distances - train, tourist bus, car. Most of the costs that determine the cost of a tour package are transportation costs. The more comfortable and fast mode of transport is used, the higher the cost of travel. It can be noted that despite the high cost of high-speed modes of transport, they are also used for short distances, as this saves tourists time for recreational purposes.
Accommodation services is a specific hotel offered to the tourist in the tourist center for the duration of the trip. Accommodations in hotels differ according to the type of hospitality services that are offered to the tourist. These can be hotels, motels, villas, apartments, campsites, etc. Catering services are part of the hospitality services, so they are not included as a separate element in the travel package. Breakfast is almost always included in the price of accommodation. The second meal can be outside the walls of the hotel or given to independent choice the tourists themselves. Rest and food are important elements of human existence and their quality level determines the tourist experience and the cost of tourist services. The catering service always precedes entertainment and educational activities and is very important. Tourism organizers carefully study eating habits and try to please tourists as much as possible. There are special recommendations for catering for tourists of different nationalities. It should be varied, slightly different from the usual way of eating and be a little bit of a surprise.
Transfer is the delivery of a tourist from the place of arrival, located at the place of stay (airport, harbor, railway station), to the place of accommodation (hotel), where he will live, and back. Transfers are carried out using buses, sometimes taxis or limousines, if such transfers are included in the tour package or requested by the tourist. More precisely, a transfer is any transportation of a tourist within the boundaries of a tourist center. For this reason, trips from the hotel to the theater, to the museum and back can also be included here. But these transfers are usually not included in the tourist package, as clients do not always perceive it as a mandatory service.
By purchasing a package that includes four mandatory basic elements, the client not only has significant discounts from the tour operator, because he purchases a serial tourist product of a travel company, but he can always ask the tour operator to expand it by including other services or he can do it on his own, directly in the tourist center.
Tourist services
Tourism- temporary departures (travels) of people to another country or locality other than the place of permanent residence for a period of 24 hours to 6 months or with at least one overnight stay for entertainment, health, sports, guest, educational, religious and other purposes without occupation activity paid from a local source. .
A person making such a journey is called tourist.
It is quite difficult to give a brief and at the same time a complete definition of the concept of "tourism", due to the variety of functions it performs and the large number of forms of manifestation. According to the definition adopted by the United Nations in 1954, tourism is an active recreation that affects the promotion of health, the physical development of a person, associated with movement outside the permanent place of residence. In the proceedings of the World Conference on Tourism held by the WTO in 1981 in Madrid, the following definition is given: tourism is one of the active rest, which is a journey made with the aim of knowing certain areas, new countries and combined in a number of countries with elements of sports. In 1993, the UN Statistical Commission adopted a broader definition: tourism is the activity of persons who travel and stay in places outside their usual environment for a period not exceeding one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes.
There are other definitions, and each of them reflects certain aspects of tourism. The variety of definitions is connected with the duality of the internal nature of tourism itself. On the one hand, tourism is a special case of travel, on the other hand, it is an activity for the production of a tourist product. In principle, both travel and the production of tourist products are activities. However, production is an economic activity and its purpose is to make a profit, and travel is always movement in space. It is quite difficult to find the line between the purposes of travel and the purposes of tourism, so it is worth distinguishing between these concepts.
The law "On the Fundamentals of Tourism in the Russian Federation" defines some types of tourism:
By goals Tourism can be divided into two main types of tourism:
Each of these types of tourism can be divided into more specialized subspecies - pedestrian, water, space, disabled, religious, etc.
Since ancient times, many people have traveled to explore the world and discover new territories, with trade, diplomatic, military, religious and other missions. All these travelers needed certain services from the local population in terms of accommodation, food, etc. Historically, the first enterprises in the tourism industry were taverns, which enjoyed a dubious reputation as brothels.
This stage is characterized by: the emergence of specialized enterprises for the production of tourist services (XIX century), as well as the formation of mass and social tourism (before World War II) and the rapid development of the tourism industry and mass conveyor tourism (until the 80s of the XX century).
The emergence of mass tourism was facilitated by the development of industry, and as a result, the differentiation of free time, the emergence of paid holidays. In addition, the revolutionary development of transport - the appearance of the steamboat, the steam locomotive, the expansion of the road network also played an important role.
The first upscale hotels appeared in Germany and Switzerland at the beginning of the 19th century, in the second half of the century travel agencies were created that organized tourist trips and sold them to the consumer.
Recreational resources can be conditionally divided into natural and socio-economic (socio-cultural).
Natural tourism resources are classified:
Socio-economic resources include:
Despite its social and humane role, tourism modifies the environment. Reducing damage to the tourism industry environment regulated at the state and international levels through environmental education, tax regulation, limiting the tourist and recreational load on Natural resources etc.
Thus, recreational resources are considered as one of the factors in the development of tourism and the basis for planning the production of a tourist product.
The tourism industry is a diversified production complex engaged in the reproduction of conditions for travel and recreation, that is, the production of a tourist product.
However, the definition of the tourism industry as a complex of industrial and non-industrial enterprises that provide tourist services and produce goods of tourist demand is a consequence of the sectoral approach. Therefore, it should be borne in mind that the tourism industry is not only a combination of the above enterprises, but is one of the forms of territory development.
Typical subjects of the tourism industry (travel industry in the narrow sense): accommodation enterprises (hotels, boarding houses, etc.), transport, tour operators, travel agencies, resorts, tour and guide agencies, associations and government bodies for regulation of tourism development, organization of congresses, organization of exhibitions and fairs.
Atypical subjects of the tourism industry (the tourism industry in the broad sense): in the production sector - enterprises producing souvenirs, sporting goods, leisure goods, clothing for recreation and tourism, literature on tourism, engineering products, photographic goods; in the service sector - enterprises organizing entertainment, catering, bath and sauna services, cultural and educational activities, coaching services, medical services, credit services, insurance services, issuance of visas.
All subjects of the tourism industry, to one degree or another, participate in the production of a tourist product.
The rapid strengthening of the financial and economic position of the tourism industry has led to the fact that in many countries of the world tourism has become a significant factor in regional development. Territorial authorities of various hierarchical levels, from counties and districts to federal authorities, take care of the development of tourism and areas with valuable recreational resources. Tourism is considered as a catalyst for the regional economy, allowing not only to use the entire range of recreational resources, but also to use the total production and socio-cultural potential of the territory in the most efficient way while maintaining ecological and cultural diversity.
Based on this, the authorities initiate the development of a strategy for tourism activity, together with business - the development of tourism infrastructure, the creation of national parks and recreational areas, attracting investment and increasing the number of visits to the region.
Japanese tourists
From an economic point of view, the attractiveness of tourism as an integral part of services lies in a faster return on investment and income in hard currency. The tourist business stimulates the development of other sectors of the economy: construction, trade, agriculture, production of consumer goods, communications, etc.
The relative loss of Europe's dominant position in tourism is due to:
Tourist flows are mainly directed to the recreation centers of Western and Southern Europe (France, Spain, Italy). This concentration is the result of the habit of summer beach holidays. The UK is known for educational tourism, while Northern Europe (Scandinavia and Ireland) specialize in eco-tourism.
BAT is in third place in the world in terms of tourism development, and mass visits by tourists to this region began in the 80s. XX century. These are mainly industrial countries - active exporters of goods: Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Taiwan.
BAT attracts tourists with its unique nature, and new industrial countries with business tours. Leisure tourism is developed in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The Japanese industry ranks second in the world after the United States. Singapore offers shopping tourism. Thailand is developing new beaches on the southern coast of the country, organizing educational trips to the northern part. There is a high demand sex tourism industry in the largest cities.
In the BAT region, the average spending per tourist exceeds the world average of $659 and amounts to $764. Although in some countries, such as China or Mongolia, spending by vacationers is extremely low - up to $200.
The number of foreign tourists visiting Africa and the cash receipts from them are relatively small and amount to about 2-3% of the world. The growth of international tourism in Africa was constrained by the high prices of the African product in the tourist markets. However, in recent years, the region has switched to low-cost mass, mainly beach tourism, especially in the north of the continent near the Mediterranean coast.
The largest generating market for the countries of the region are the African countries themselves, providing up to 50% of all tourists. Other tourist generating countries are France, Germany, Great Britain. This is explained by the fact that not so long ago these countries were metropolises of African colonies.
The most popular tourist destinations are located: in the north - Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco; in the east - Kenya, Tanzania, Seychelles, Mauritania, Zimbabwe. Some of them specialize in elite beach tourism and develop an upscale hotel industry, receiving up to $ 900 from each vacationer.
In southern Africa, a popular tourist destination is South Africa, which leads the list of the first countries on the continent in terms of arrivals and receipts. South Africa has a developed transport and hotel infrastructure, and is also becoming a fashionable country in international tourism.
However, Africa as a whole lags behind in international tourism, because many countries in the region are not economically developed and do not have political stability, and military conflicts and epidemics continue in many parts of the continent.
The formation of the Russian tourist market began in the 1990s, when three processes were going on simultaneously: the collapse of Soviet-era enterprises (tour agencies, travel agencies); the creation of new enterprises, which later became known as tour operators or travel agents; modification of old tourist enterprises by restructuring to develop a tourist product that is in demand among the Russian consumer.
Some countries have introduced a number of measures to attract Russian tourists: countries of the former socialist commonwealth Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, etc.); simplification of visa formalities in Greece, Spain; economic tours for Russian tourists (Egypt, Turkey).
The European part of Russia, the Caucasus and the mountains of Western Siberia have become the most priority areas for domestic tourism. This is a vacation in coastal cities - (Sochi, Gelendzhik, resorts of the Kaliningrad seaside); educational tourism in cultural and historical centers ("Golden Ring of Russia", Nizhny Novgorod, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Pskov, Uglich, Yaroslavl). Ecological and sports tourism, safari tours (hunting, fishing) are developing almost throughout the country, river cruises along the Volga, Lena, Irtysh, Yenisei, sea cruises in the Far East are popular. winter views tourism, mountaineering, water tourism, trekking are cultivated in the Urals, in particular in the north of the Perm Territory, Altai, the Caucasus, Kamchatka, and Karelia.
Tourism promotion is a variety of promotional activities aimed at attracting people to engage in tourism. The promotion of tourism is carried out through the media (television, radio, Internet), as well as in personal communication between people in interest clubs and tourism events. The popularization of tourism also contributes to art, especially the genre
Required knowledge and skills:
Based on the data of statistical reporting and accounting, analyze the dynamics of the volume of supply and sale of services of tourist enterprises, taking into account the level of inflation and the convertibility of the national currency;
Using modern methods and economic and mathematical models, assess the influence of factors on the volume of sales of services of tourist enterprises;
Determine the influence of the seasonality factor on changes in the volumes and assortment of the Tour
Based on the marketing approach, to form a production (product) program for the offer and sale of tourist services
Taking into account the peculiarities of the tourism industry, calculate the target volumes of the enterprise's activities, carry out forecast and planned calculations of the volume of sales of the tourist product for the future.
The offer of a tourist enterprise is the entire mass of tourist services and goods intended for sale, packaged in tours.
The proposal is characterized by qualitative parameters and quantitative indicators (Table 2.1.1).
Table 2.1.1
The system of indicators for evaluating the offer of services of a tourist enterprise
The volume of sales of a tourist product is a gross indicator of the activity of a tourist enterprise and characterizes the scale of its activities in the local specific market.
The volume of sales of the services of a tourist enterprise is estimated using the following indicators: the number of tourists served (persons), the duration of the tour (Days), income (revenue) from the sale of the tourist product (UAH), the volume of sales of the tourist product (tour-days), the number of tours sold ( from).
The current domestic legislation, as well as international documents in the field of tourism, distinguish between specific (characteristic and related) and non-specific tourism products. In the economic literature, the composition of the tourism product is represented by such elements as: tourism services, tourism products, environmental conditions and resources (Fig. 2.1.1):
Rice. 2.1.1. Elements tourism product
Tourist services can be basic, additional and specific. Basic services include accommodation, meals, transportation and insurance. Additional services include household, medical, currency and credit, trade, special types of communication services, information, cultural and entertainment, gaming, sports, congress services, etc. Specific services are provided by tourism intermediary enterprises. These are the services of travel agencies, travel agencies, tour operators, tour agencies, travel and excursion agencies and other enterprises.
A prerequisite for planning the volume of supply of a tourist product is its economic analysis, which is carried out in the following stages.
1. Formation of an information database on the volume and structure of the implementation of the tourist product. Information base data for the economic analysis of the implementation of the product program of a tourist enterprise are statistical reporting forms No. 1-tour "Report on the activities of a tourism organization", form No. 1-services "Report on the volume of paid services provided", financial reporting form No. 2 "Report on financial results" , operational accounting data.
2. Determination of the total volume of sales of the tourist product and analysis of the degree of implementation of the plan for the reporting period.
3. Analysis of the dynamics of the total volume of sales of the tourist product. At this stage, the growth rate and the growth rate of the volume of sales of the tourist product are determined for 3-5 recent years, the average annual rate of change in the volume of sales of the tourist product, which are calculated by the formula:
">
where T is the average annual rate of change in the volume of sales of the tourist product for the period;
D (B) "- income (revenue) from the sale of a tourist product for s-th
period; D (C) b - income (revenue) from the sale of a tourist product in
base period.
4. Analysis of the composition of the implementation of the tourist product for certain types of tourism.
5. Analysis of the volume and structure of the implementation of the tourist product by region.
6. Analysis of the structure and range of the tourism product.
7. Analysis of the structure of the tourist product of the enterprise.
8. Analysis of the rhythm and seasonality of the implementation of the tourist product is carried out using the coefficients of rhythm, seasonality. Rhythm coefficient is calculated by the formula
where Kp - coefficient of rhythm;
Or.pl - the volume of sales of the tourist product within the plan, UAH
(Turodney)
Or.zag - the total volume of sales of the tourist product according to the plan for the entire period, UAH (trip days).
The rhythm of the implementation of the tourist product can also be determined using indicators: the standard deviation from the average (r) and the coefficient of variation (v):
">
where r is the standard deviation;
Or.i-volume of sales of the tourist product according to z-th period, UAH;
Or-average value, UAH.
n is the number of study periods, months.
where v is the absolute range of fluctuations of the tourist product of average value,%.
The coefficient of variation is estimated in relative terms and determines the uniformity of the implementation of the tourist product:
9. Analysis of the volume and structure of the tourist product at the place of sale.
10. Quantitative assessment of factors causing changes in sales volume and sales structure.
The factors that influence the offer of services of a tourist enterprise include:
External (reflecting the current state of the economic environment and its expectations in the future);
Internal (specific tasks, goals, policies, methods, organizational structure of the enterprise, systems involved in the implementation of the enterprise's services);
Personal (age, earnings, education, level of professionalism, personal characteristics, attitude to risk in the process of making purchase decisions)
Interpersonal (reflect the features of the so-called purchase qualification, which consists of participants with varying degrees interest, authority, etc.).
In the system of methods for quantifying the influence of factors, the simplest is the method of chain substitutions and the method of differences, which are applied using base formula
">
11. Study of indicators of the safety threshold and the margin of financial strength of the tourist enterprise.
PB \u003d D (V) f-D (V) m.b,
where PB - security threshold, games;
D (B) f - actual income (revenue) from the sale of tourist services, UAH;
D (B) T6 - income (revenue) from the sale of the tourist product at the break-even point, UAH.
">
where Вpost - fixed costs, UAH; C 1 tour - Tour price UAH; In zm. for 1 tour - variable costs for 1 tour, UAH.
At the same time, in tourism, variable expenses include the cost of accommodation, transportation, food, the cost of specialized services (insurance, guide-interpreter, booking services, excursions, etc.), most of the operating expenses, and the cost of selling a tourist product.
">
where ZFM is the margin of financial strength, times.
12. Determination of reserves for increasing the volume of sales of the tourist product.
In control system economic activity enterprise, the starting place is occupied by planning the volume of sales of the tourist product.
In the planning process, methods can be used, the characteristics of which are given in Table. 2.1.2.
Table 2.1.2
Methods for calculating the volume of sales of a tourist product for the planned period by tourism enterprises
">
">
Determining the volume of sales of a tourist product by the method of direct economic calculations has a certain specificity, due to the method of formation of the cost of the tour. A detailed methodology for calculating the volume of sales of a tourist product by a tour operator for the planned period is given in Table. 2.1.3, and the travel agent - in Table. 2.1.4. In this case, the calculation of individual parameters presented in Table. 2.1.3 is carried out as follows:
Gr. 6 = gr. 5 x (column 4 - 1) based on a single checkout hour;
Gr. 10 = gr. 4 x gr. nine;
Gr. 14 = gr. 6 + gr. 7 + gr. 8 + gr. 10 + gr. 11 + gr. 12 + gr. 13;
Gr. 16 \u003d (gr. 14 + gr. 15) x 20: 100 - MPVpvp; - gr. 17 = gr. 14 + gr. 15 + gr. 16;
Gr. 18 = gr. C x gr. 4; - gr. 19 = gr. 17gr. eighteen;
Gr. 20 \u003d (gr. 19 - gr. 19 x% CV): 100;
Gr.21 = gr.19-EKV;
Gr. 22 = gr.13 + EKVts.
The volume of sales of tourist services, expressed by the cost indicator income (Revenue), is decisive in assessing the competitiveness of enterprises in the corresponding segment of the consumer market.
At the same time, the main tool for determining competitive
positions is to build a matrix of the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
As criteria in the construction of a two-dimensional BCG matrix, the following are considered: the market growth index (sales volume of services in the market) and
the relative share of the company's products on the market.
Table 2.1.3
Algorithm for calculating the volume of sales of a tourist product by a tour operator for a planned period by the method of direct calculations.
">
Conventions: Air defense - enterprises-producers of services (rozmitsennya, transportation, food, insurance, etc.); Т.О - tourist operator; so - Travel agent.
The assessment scale for individual types of services (average values in the matrix) is taken as the average sales growth index equal to one, and the relative market share is an average value in the range from the minimum to the maximum value of the relative market share. The diameter of the circle for the image of the product is selected in proportion to the share of the volume of production in the total volume of sales of the enterprise (Fig. 2.1.1).
">
IP - index of growth in sales of the company's products;
IP - average growth rate of services sales volumes
enterprises; VChR - the relative share of the enterprise in the market of tourist
ODR - the average value of the relative market share of the enterprise in the range from the minimum to the maximum value
Algorithm for calculating the volume of sales of a tourist product by a travel agency for the planned period Table 2.1.4
">
10. Under what conditions can a travel agency receive the maximum amount of profit with a constant amount of income (revenue) from the sale of services?
1) by the maximum difference between the amount of commission and operating expenses of the travel agency;
2) by minimum size fixed costs;
3) subject to the excess of the growth rate of the commission over the operating expenses of the travel agency for an additional unit of tour sales.
11. How will the volume of income (revenue) of the travel agency at the point of minimum profitability change with a decrease in rental rates for the area used by it?
1) increase;
2) will decrease.
12. How will the amount of income (revenue) of the tour operator at the point of minimum profitability change in case of an increase in fixed costs?
1) increase;
2) will decrease.
13. How will the volume of income (revenue) of the travel agency change at the point of minimum profitability in the face of an increase in the level of commission?
1) increase;
2) will decrease.
14. Expand the main components of the tourism product:
1) accommodation, transportation, meals;
2) transfer, accommodation, entertainment services;
3) place of destination, transportation, accommodation.
